Bluechip — leveraged quality (Buffett/Power Corp) · one review each market day, every decision logged.
Portfolio Value
$105,042.54
as of 2026-10-12
Total Return
+5.04%
+$5,042.54 since inception
Latest Day
—
session P&L
Sessions
29
since 2026-08-25
Cash
$-70,399.89
uninvested buffer
Overviewmandate, equity, what it holds
Mandate
The AQR finding that Berkshire's record is quality plus cheap steady leverage, run live: a fixed 25-name universe of A+-or-better-rated mega-caps, a monthly quality screen (return on equity, net debt to EBITDA, free cash flow — missing data fails, never passes), and up to 12 names the LLM picks with a written moat-and-valuation thesis each, held at 1.7x gross exposure — Berkshire's own measured leverage — on a margin debit the risk desk caps in code. Daily sessions only monitor: exits need a broken thesis, and a falling price is not one. The catch is stated rather than buried: Buffett's leverage came from insurance float that cannot be recalled, this comes from margin that can, so the book publishes how far it can fall before a call — and accrues the ~6.5% interest Alpaca does not charge, because free leverage would flatter it by exactly the cost that separates the two.
How it was decided
Eric's mandate of 2026-08-24 — 'Warren Buffett / Power Corp: triple-A/blue-chip companies with 25% leverage built in' — researched and designed the same day by Claude Fable 5, then raised on 2026-08-25 to 1.7x to match Berkshire's measured float leverage exactly. The evaluation was pre-committed before the first trade: judge at 60+ sessions, net of financing, against the honest null of 1.7x the index — and count a margin call as a failed run, not a bad quarter.
Equity Curve · from $100,000
Current Holdings · 12
Symbol
Market Value
Unrealized
META
$18,747
+32.02%
MSFT
$15,749
+10.91%
NVDA
$15,333
+7.98%
PG
$14,732
+3.75%
GOOGL
$14,523
+2.27%
V
$14,430
+1.62%
AMZN
$14,207
+0.05%
MA
$14,056
-1.02%
ADP
$13,822
-2.66%
KO
$13,690
-3.59%
JNJ
$13,667
-3.76%
PEP
$12,486
-12.07%
Riskmeasured after the session, never shown to the agent
Attribution · market vs decisions · 2026-10-12
How much of the return came from simply being exposed to the market, and how much
from the agent's own choices. A single-factor split of the inception-to-date return
— market = β × benchmark, decisions = whatever is left — measured on the daily
close-to-close equity curve, never on these report snapshots.
Total return
+2.06%
inception to date
Market
+0.35%
β × benchmark
Decisions
+1.72%
the residual
Cash drag
+0.55%
-67.0% in cash
The decision half is not yet distinguishable from luck.
Alpha's t-statistic is 0.28, well short of the ~2 that would make
it significant, so +1.72% of "decisions" is the honest
arithmetic residual and not evidence of skill. Beta is well measured long before
alpha is — that asymmetry is a property of the estimate, not a flaw in the book, and
it takes a lot more than 33 sessions to resolve.
The regression behind the split
Estimate
Value
Reading
Beta
0.42
t = 1.54 · not yet distinguishable from zero
R²
7.1%
the benchmark explains little of this book's day-to-day
Alpha (annualised)
+14.36%
t = 0.28 · NOT significant
Benchmark
S&P 500
33 aligned sessions · 2026-08-13 → 2026-10-09
Today alone. The book moved
+0.38%
against a benchmark
+0.59% —
+0.25% of that was exposure and
+0.13% was position selection. One day of a
two-term decomposition is noise; it is here because the daily reading is what
accumulates into the figures above.
FRTB Capital · standardised approach · 2026-10-12
What a bank would have to hold in capital against this exact book, under the
Basel market-risk rules (BCBS d457 (MAR20-MAR23, MAR32-MAR33)).
Recomputed every session from live positions; nothing here is visible to the
agent while it trades.
Capital requirement
$64,030
SbM + DRC + RRAO
Of equity
61.0%
capital / portfolio value
Market-risk RWA
$800,378
capital × 12.5
Components, buckets, and why DRC is the interesting line
Component
Charge
Share
SbM delta · high correlations bind
$37,713
58.9%
SbM vega · no optionality in the book
$0
0.0%
SbM curvature · linear payoff
$0
0.0%
DRC — jump to default · LGD 100%
$26,317
41.1%
RRAO · no exotic underlyings
$0
0.0%
Total capital requirement
$64,030
100%
Equity buckets · MAR21.72
Bucket
Risk weight
Names
Net value
Kb
8
50%
ADP, MA, MSFT, NVDA, V
$73,391
$24,626
5
30%
AMZN, JNJ, KO, PEP, PG
$68,782
$13,848
6
35%
GOOGL, META
$33,274
$9,474
Why the second-biggest line is the interesting one.
The DRC is jump-to-default: the issuer disappears overnight. Equity has no
recovery, so Basel sets loss-given-default at 100% and charges an unrated
name 15% of its market value — 41% of the requirement here,
and nothing about hedging, forecasting or diversification reduces it.
That the high correlation
scenario binds is itself a readout: a long-only book is dearest when
correlations rise, a hedged one when they fall.
Value at Risk · historical simulation · 2026-10-12
The loss this book exceeds on the worst few days in a hundred, measured by replaying
499 days of its own constituents' returns through today's
positions. Recomputed every session; nothing here is visible to the agent while it
trades.
VaR 99% · 1 day
$4,045
worst 1 day in 100
Of equity
3.85%
loss / portfolio value
ES 97.5%
$4,382
average of the tail beyond
VaR 99% · 10 day
$10,460
regulatory horizon
Quantiles, component VaR, the backtest, and what VaR will not tell you
Confidence
Historical
Of equity
Parametric
Gap
Tail pts
95%
$2,433
2.32%
$2,695
−9.7%
25
99%
$4,045
3.85%
$3,811
+6.1%
5
ES 97.5%
$4,382
4.17%
the average of the tail, not its edge
Why the 10-day figure is measured, not scaled.
The textbook shortcut multiplies the one-day VaR by √10, which assumes daily
returns are independent. Here that gives $12,792 against a
measured $10,460 — 22.3%
too high. Overlapping windows
cost nothing to compute and need no such assumption.
Component VaR
· at 99% · sums to the total
Name
Market value
Weight
Component
Share
META
$18,735
10.7%
$755
19.8%
NVDA
$15,328
8.7%
$531
13.9%
AMZN
$14,210
8.1%
$509
13.4%
MSFT
$15,752
9.0%
$405
10.6%
GOOGL
$14,525
8.3%
$403
10.6%
MA
$14,056
8.0%
$311
8.2%
V
$14,423
8.2%
$307
8.0%
ADP
$13,822
7.9%
$251
6.6%
These are allocations, not a ranking. Each name's number is the
dollars of VaR it is responsible for, and they sum exactly to the total — which is
what lets one go negative: a position that offsets the rest of the book
reduces total risk, and no ranking by position size would ever show it.
The part that makes it a measurement.
Over 249 out-of-sample days the 99% threshold was
breached 2 time(s) against 2.5
expected — Kupiec p = 0.747, verdict
consistent with the model, Basel traffic light green. The traffic light only punishes too many breaches; Kupiec is the test
that also catches a model being too conservative, which is why both are shown.
Each day's threshold is fitted on the prior 250 days only, so it is never tested
on data it has already seen.
Two different questions. Everything above shocks today's
positions with market history. The account's own equity curve —
42 sessions, 16.4%
annualised volatility — says what it has actually done:
95% VaR 1.36% · 99% VaR 1.84%.
They diverge whenever the agent has been trading.
What VaR will not tell you. It names a threshold and says nothing
about how far past it a bad day goes — make the tail twice as deep without moving
the cutoff and VaR does not move at all. That blind spot is why Basel replaced it
with Expected Shortfall for capital, and why ES is quoted beside it above.
Counterparty Risk
· SA-CCR · 2026-10-12
Market risk is symmetric — the price moves, you win or you lose. Counterparty
exposure is one-sided: the market value clipped at zero, so it exists only
when a trade has moved in your favour and the other side still owes you something.
A fully-paid share bought on an exchange has none of that. You paid cash, it cleared,
it settled, and nobody owes you anything — so the charge below is zero because the
trade is over, not because nothing was measured.
SA-CCR EAD
$0
α × (RC + PFE) · 0 derivative(s)
CVA capital
$0
spread risk, not default
Settlement in flight
$0
T+1
Custodial concentration
100%
one broker, everything
The derivation: SA-CCR terms, what was excluded, settlement, leverage and concentration
SA-CCR term
Value
Derivative trades in the netting set
0
Replacement cost · max(V − C, 0)
$0
Add-on aggregate · supervisory factors
$0
PFE multiplier · floored at 5%
1.0000
PFE · multiplier × add-on
$0
α · CRE52.1
1.4
Exposure at default
$0
CVA capital · CRE55, BA-CVA reduced
$0
Why
· what never reaches SA-CCR
Kind
Positions
Market value
Reason
cash equity long
12
$175,427
fully-paid long share: bought for cash, centrally cleared and settled — no open obligation, so no counterparty exposure
Settlement is the one that is genuinely live.
US equities settle T+1, so a fill from this session is a
commitment against a leg that has not been delivered yet:
$0 in flight,
$0 past due, capital charge $0.
Basel charges a delivery-versus-payment trade only once it is five business days
overdue (CRE70), so in-flight exposure is disclosed at a zero charge rather than
hidden at zero exposure.
Leverage
· capability vs utilisation
Provisioned
Margin debit
Short value
Gross
Net
4× · shorting on · options L3
$70,400
$0
1.67×
1.67×
Leveraged.
This is what makes the zeros above readable as a fact about today's positions
rather than about the account's permissions: the book is provisioned for
4× margin, shorting and options, and is currently using
67.0% of the first and 0.0%
of the second. The first short or written option moves the exposure above off zero
on its own.
The counterparty that does exist.
Alpaca (paper) holds $-70,400 of cash and
$175,427 of securities — 100% of the
book, by construction. Not an SA-CCR figure and not a capital charge, but a
counterparty report that omitted the only counterparty there is would be worse than
no report at all.
What this is really measuring.
Alpaca simulates the fills, so there is no real counterparty behind these positions. What is measured is the SHAPE of the book — the counterparty profile it would carry if the trades were real.
Sessionsevery decision, in the agent's own words
Latest Review · 2026-10-12
Trades
No trades this session — held all positions.
Agent Reasoning
No news flagged for any holding — no data suggesting fraud, delisting, or guidance-collapse-grade deterioration. Market is calm (VIX 15.4, S&P flat). No thesis breaks identified; data gaps on news are not exit triggers per the contract.
Session — Daily monitoring check (not a review day); last screen 2026-09-22, 12/12 holdings PASS.
Actions — No trades. No buys permitted today per contract; no news-driven thesis breaks found across all 12 holdings (ADP, AMZN, GOOGL, JNJ, KO, MA, META, MSFT, NVDA, PEP, PG, V). Empty news feeds are a data gap, not grounds for exit.
Book — 12 holdings, weights per last screen (META largest at 17.9%, JNJ/KO smallest at 13.0%). Equity $105,082 | Gross exposure 1.67x vs 1.70x target | Margin debit $70,400 | Maintenance cushion: holdings can fall 43% before a margin call. Cumulative synthetic financing: $601.77 (today's accrual $37.61 @ 6.5% APR).
Watching — Nothing flagged for exit. Next deep review due within 28 days of 2026-09-22 (by ~2026-10-20), where buy-budget-to-target ($3,155) will be considered alongside fresh screens. Market backdrop benign (VIX 15.4, regime normal, no freeze/defensive triggers).
History · 8 most recent of 28 earlier sessions
2026-10-09$102,910.53—0 trades
No trades this session — held all positions.
Session — Daily monitoring check; screen breadth 12/12 PASS (as of last review 2026-09-22, no deep review today). No buys permitted today per contract.
Actions — No trades. News pulls for all 12 holdings (ADP, AMZN, GOOGL, JNJ, KO, MA, META, MSFT, NVDA, PEP, PG, V) returned no headlines — a data gap, not a thesis break, so per rule 3 no exits are warranted. Market backdrop is calm: S&P +0.24%, NASDAQ +0.32%, VIX 15.1 (well below defensive/freeze thresholds), no macro stress signal.
Book — Holdings roughly unchanged from last review weights: META 17.5%, NVDA 15.1%, MSFT 15.0%, GOOGL 14.0%, PG 14.3%, AMZN 13.6%, V 13.7%, ADP 13.4%, MA 13.4%, KO 13.2%, JNJ 13.1%, PEP 12.1%. Gross exposure 1.68x vs 1.70x target (buy budget to target $1,606, not actionable today — no buys on daily sessions). Margin debit $70,400. Maintenance cushion: holdings can fall 42% before a margin call. Cumulative synthetic financing: $564.16 (6.5% APR, $12.54 accrued today).
Watching — No names flagged for exit; all theses intact. Will re-run full fundamental screen at next deep review (due within 28 days of 2026-09-22) to confirm continued PASS status for all 12, with particular attention to MA/NVDA's buyback-distorted ROE (tracked via ROA) and any emerging news gaps once data feed normalizes.
2026-10-08$101,963.14—0 trades
No trades this session — held all positions.
Session — Daily monitoring check; holdings vs last screen 12/12 PASS (2026-09-22 cache).
Actions — No trades. News pull returned no headlines for any of the 12 holdings (no data = no action, per rule 3 — a gap is not a thesis break). Market is quiet (SPX -0.33%, NASDAQ -0.54%, VIX 15.4, well below defensive/freeze thresholds); nothing here constitutes fraud, delisting risk, or guidance-collapse evidence for any name. No buys today — not a review day.
Book — 12 names, gross exposure 1.69x vs 1.70x target (buy budget to target ~$1,019, untouched today). Equity $102,033; long $172,437; margin debit $70,400. Weights roughly even (12.3%–17.8%), largest META (17.8%), all within 20% cap. Maintenance cushion: holdings can fall 42% before a margin call. Cumulative synthetic financing: $551.63 (today's accrual $12.54 @ 6.5% APR) — this book is judged net of that cost.
Watching — No near-exit names; all 12 remain PASS with no adverse news flow. Nothing new near entry (no buys possible today regardless). Will re-run full fundamental screen at next deep review (due within 28 days of 2026-09-22). Continuing to hold through normal daily price noise — no thesis has broken.
2026-10-07$101,630.35—0 trades
No trades this session — held all positions.
Session — Daily monitoring check (no buys today per contract). Screen breadth unchanged: 12/12 holdings PASS as of last review (2026-09-22).
Actions — No trades. News scan returned no headlines for any of the 12 holdings today (data gap, not a signal — per protocol this is not grounds for exit). No thesis-breaking developments identified. Market is modestly soft (S&P -0.56%, NASDAQ -0.81%, VIX up 5.4% to 15.8 but still low/calm regime), well within normal daily noise — not a reason to act.
Book — 12 holdings, gross exposure 1.69x vs 1.70x target (within band, no rebalancing needed). Weights roughly: META 17.9%, NVDA 15.8%, MSFT 15.1%, GOOGL 13.8%, AMZN 13.5%, V 13.6%, MA 13.3%, JNJ 13.2%, KO 13.2%, PG 14.3%, ADP 13.1%, PEP 12.3%. Margin debit $70,400. Maintenance cushion: holdings can fall 42% before a margin call. Cumulative synthetic financing: $539.09 (6.5% APR, $12.54 accrued today) — tracked as a cost this book has not actually paid but is judged net of.
Watching — Nothing flagged for exit; all theses intact. No new entries under consideration (daily session, buys restricted to review days). Will reassess full screen breadth and any sector/valuation drift at next deep review within 28 days.
2026-10-06$101,640.54—0 trades
No trades this session — held all positions.
Session — Daily check (monitoring only); last screen 2026-09-22, 12/12 PASS. No buys today per contract.
Actions — No trades. News pulls returned no headlines for any of the 12 holdings today — treated as a data gap, not a thesis break, per rule 3. Market backdrop is calm/constructive (SPX +0.53%, NASDAQ +0.57%, VIX 15.4, down from last week), nothing here suggests fundamental deterioration in any holding. No name shows evidence of fraud, delisting risk, guidance collapse, or a screen fail — holding all positions unchanged.
Book — ADP 13.0%, AMZN 13.5%, GOOGL 13.9%, JNJ 13.0%, KO 13.2%, MA 13.2%, META 18.3%, MSFT 15.3%, NVDA 16.0%, PEP 12.3%, PG 14.2%, V 13.5%. Gross exposure 1.69x vs 1.70x target (no action needed — not adding). Margin debit $70,400. Maintenance cushion: holdings can fall 42% before a margin call. Cumulative synthetic financing: $526.55 (6.5% APR, $12.54 accrued today) — tracked cost this book is judged net of, though not actually charged in paper trading.
Watching — No near-entry or near-exit names flagged today; META and NVDA remain the largest single-name weights (18.3%, 16.0%) — worth confirming at next review that ROA-based screen reasoning still holds given buyback-distorted ROE. Nothing urgent; next deep review due within 28 days of 2026-09-22.
2026-10-05$99,927.04—0 trades
No trades this session — held all positions.
Session — Daily monitoring check (not a review day); last screen 2026-09-22: 12/12 holdings PASS. No buys permitted today.
Actions — No trades. News scan returned no headlines for any of the 12 holdings (ADP, AMZN, GOOGL, JNJ, KO, MA, META, MSFT, NVDA, PEP, PG, V) — no fraud, delisting, guidance collapse, or other thesis-breaking events found. A data gap is not a sell signal, so all positions held as-is.
Book — Equity $99,935 | Gross exposure 1.70x (at target) | Margin debit $70,400 | Maintenance cushion: holdings can fall 41% before a margin call. Cumulative synthetic financing: $514.02 (today's accrual $37.61 @ 6.5% APR). Weights unchanged: META 18.6%, NVDA 16.0%, MSFT 15.5%, GOOGL 14.1%, PG 14.1%, AMZN 13.6%, V 13.5%, JNJ 13.3%, KO/MA 13.2% each, ADP 13.0%, PEP 12.4%.
Watching — Market calm (VIX 15.9, S&P +0.15% today, drawdown from HWM only 2.4% — well inside the 20% breaker). No names flashing deterioration. Nothing new for the watchlist; will reassess full screen breadth and any entry/exit candidates at the next deep review.
2026-10-02$99,638.11—0 trades
No trades this session — held all positions.
Session — Daily monitoring check; screen breadth 12/12 PASS (last review 2026-09-22). No buys today per contract.
Actions — No trades. News pull returned no headlines for any of the 12 holdings today (data gap, not a thesis signal — rule 3 explicitly bars exiting on a gap). Market is calm (VIX 15.6, down 4.7%; S&P +1.05%, NASDAQ +1.46%), well below the 22 defensive / 28 freeze thresholds. Drawdown from HWM is 2.8%, far from the 20% breaker. No broken theses identified; all positions held unchanged.
Book — ADP 13.3%, AMZN 13.7%, GOOGL 14.1%, JNJ 13.5%, KO 13.3%, MA 13.1%, META 18.4%, MSFT 15.1%, NVDA 16.1%, PEP 12.5%, PG 14.1%, V 13.4%. Gross exposure 1.71x vs 1.70x target (buy budget to target: -$697, immaterial drift — no action needed, especially since buys are barred today anyway). Margin debit $70,400. Maintenance cushion: holdings can fall 41% before a margin call. Synthetic financing: $12.54 accrued today, $476.40 cumulative.
Watching — No names flagged for exit; all 12 holdings remain thesis-intact. Nothing new entering watch-list for next review (2026-10-20 window) absent fresh data. Will continue monitoring META and NVDA position sizes (18.4% and 16.1%) relative to the 20% single-position cap, and the slight gross-exposure overshoot (1.71x) for correction at the next review via normal rebalancing rather than interim trading.
2026-10-01$99,813.62—0 trades
No trades this session — held all positions.
Session — Daily check (monitoring only); last screen 12/25 PASS (2026-09-22), no re-screen today.
Actions — No trades. News scan across all 12 holdings showed routine items: earnings commentary (JNJ, KO beat/raise), competitive chatter (MA/V stablecoin and AI-transaction-scoring headlines, Amazon/Shopify AI-shopping rivalry), product news (GOOGL Gemini 4 well received, MSFT ClickHouse expansion, NVDA buyback authorization), and macro noise (soft PCE, rising yields, "AI bubble" commentary). Nothing rises to fraud, delisting risk, or guidance-collapse-grade deterioration. No screen FAILs identified. Holding all 12 names unchanged.
Book — ADP 13.4%, AMZN 13.5%, GOOGL 14.1%, JNJ 13.8%, KO 13.4%, MA 13.2%, META 18.4%, MSFT 15.2%, NVDA 15.6%, PEP 12.5%, PG 14.1%, V 13.5%. Gross exposure 1.71x (target 1.70x, effectively at cap — no room to add). Margin debit $70,400. Maintenance cushion: 41% before call. Synthetic financing: $12.54 accrued today, $463.87 cumulative — tracked cost this book would bear on real margin, judged net of it.
Watching — META weight (18.4%) is closest to the 20% position cap — monitor for trim consideration at next review if it drifts further. MA/V facing structural questions on stablecoin/agentic-commerce disintermediation — thesis intact for now, but flagged for deeper look at next deep review. No new entry candidates evaluated today (buys restricted to review days).
2026-09-30$100,575.26—0 trades
No trades this session — held all positions.
Session — Daily monitoring check (no review today); last screen 2026-09-22, 12/12 holdings PASS.
Actions — No trades. Scanned news across all 12 holdings: nothing rises to fraud/delisting/guidance-collapse territory. Notable items are routine — JNJ new IMAAVY data (positive), KO/PEP margin/cash-flow commentary (watch but not thesis-breaking), MA/V stablecoin & agentic-commerce expansion (business-as-usual moat extension), MSFT Copilot privacy story (reputational noise, not financial), NVDA/META/GOOGL AI-ecosystem headlines (competitive but expected), ADP payroll data in-line-to-strong. No screen-FAIL evidence, no fraud, no deterioration signals. Price softness (e.g., ADP -8.9% 1mo) is not a thesis break per mandate.
Book — 12 holdings, weights ~12.7%–18.1% (META largest at 18.1%, still <20% cap). Gross exposure 1.70x (target 1.70x), margin debit $70,400, equity $100,577. Maintenance cushion: holdings can fall 41% before a margin call. Cumulative synthetic financing: $451.33 (6.5% APR, $12.54 accrued today).
Watching — ADP: valuation debate ahead of Oct 28 earnings, monitor for real deterioration vs. just price softness. KO: elevated P/FCF (71x) and pending IRS ruling — watch valuation/tax risk into next review. PEP: operating cash flow squeeze despite dividend raise — watch cash generation trend. No new-entry candidates evaluated today (buys restricted to review days).